Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 20.653843 22.421192 24.329667 26.554065 29.088662 31.902554 35.284853
2025-08-31 17.703568 20.089511 22.843350 26.296785 30.569858 35.763905 42.684298
2025-09-07 15.671210 18.382179 21.674021 26.049015 31.845494 39.471276 50.649164
2025-09-14 14.223470 17.126227 20.797391 25.917093 33.111073 43.272617 59.580996
2025-09-21 13.035717 16.025377 19.932224 25.601423 33.976738 46.575555 68.579526
2025-09-28 12.513329 15.711475 20.033902 26.574504 36.777703 53.256871 85.089655
2025-10-05 11.726145 14.950056 19.416051 26.389077 37.731855 57.120161 97.888034
2025-10-12 11.084619 14.326354 18.917764 26.295413 38.776613 61.313646 112.968825
2025-10-19 10.641040 13.940381 18.718127 26.622562 40.551854 67.229519 134.642291
2025-10-26 10.125294 13.406934 18.243431 26.435634 41.365382 71.425626 154.320619
2025-11-02 9.644729 12.890108 17.747719 26.149920 41.935984 75.236098 175.260676
2025-11-09 9.286713 12.531528 17.466932 26.193892 43.133539 80.746209 205.496169
2025-11-16 8.889197 12.096365 17.043884 25.965523 43.802057 85.341825 237.240390
2025-11-23 8.527670 11.696457 16.650436 25.752712 44.479896 90.220179 275.635533
2025-11-30 8.194344 11.321592 16.271558 25.527740 45.099203 95.180047 321.117332
2025-12-07 7.907266 11.003567 15.964835 25.406206 45.929464 101.051290 381.048321
2025-12-14 7.610996 10.655127 15.583263 25.102328 46.294146 105.701817 443.225079
2025-12-21 7.544803 10.672648 15.827604 26.048833 49.796784 121.864294 636.260469
2025-12-28 7.303125 10.390274 15.528994 25.869266 50.489695 128.809987 778.927508
2026-01-04 7.091516 10.147346 15.284977 25.778512 51.400614 137.062775 983.715802
2026-01-11 6.953198 10.019492 15.238249 26.096379 53.461798 151.058014 1396.620966
2026-01-18 6.753052 9.778240 14.970841 25.914859 54.122693 159.588318 1824.957605
2026-01-25 6.551928 9.526970 14.671363 25.637330 54.470989 167.017081 2378.219173